The Three Musketeers of Indian Politics
Presently the three musketeers in form of Modi, Rahul and Kejriwal are dominating the political scene in the country. It looks as one of them or a combination(?) of them will play a leading role in government formation at the center in 2014. They are playing hard to win the heart and mind of the Indian voter. But are they going to succeed? Yes and No.
Modi has the lead at the moment. The 63-year-old anointed as BJP's PM candidate in September, 2013 after brushing aside Advani's claim has launched a very well planned reasonably orchestrated campaign to impress the masses across the length and breadth of the country. Dozens of trains and scores of buses are pressed into service to fetch 'lakhs' of persons to fill the huge grounds to create record gatherings at well publicized meetings which are also simultaneously covered by all major TV channels. The campaign in the virtual world is also very well crafted and designed and a dedicated cyber army is playing its supportive role perfectly. His speeches were novel in the beginning but now sound stale and repetitive. Many a people are put off by the vitriol he pours on the PM and the mother and son of the first family of the Congress. Ninety percent of his speech is consumed by this attack on the trio leaving no time for his 'development' agenda. His oration and mimicry acts are though a hit with the crowds. His domination on TV channels in one way or the other was also becoming very monopolistic until Kejriwal replaced him.
Rahul is another player on the scene. Is he in or out is difficult to say with confidence. The 43-year-old is a very good example of a reluctant fighter being pushed into the ring by backers who seem to have far more confidence in him than he himself has. He comes out hurt and promises to perform better next time. But there does not seem to be any improvement. No other party leader has got so many chances to prove himself. The legacy of his family is turning out an albatross in his neck. That he does not have a grass root background is a serious drawback when compared to the other two players. He seems to be too long in the learning mode and when faced with defeats retreats back into it. He has so far not given any glimpse of his ideas, philosophy or development plans to the public. He is fond of holding captive classes for Congress workers. He is also afflicted by the Congress disease of silence. His problem is that his party consists of tired politicians who have ruled for long and would not mind taking a welcome break. This does not suit the young members who would be rendered unemployed. Also the compulsive corruption of many of his party's bigwigs and the subsequent efforts to protect them from prosecution does not go well with the increasingly alert voters. Poor Rahul finds himself helpless in such situations. The couple of times he has revolted have helped but that is not the way decisions can always be taken. He has ideas but are relentlessly lampooned by Modi and the fact that he is not a good orator also goes against him. It seems that the Congress party is working very hard to lose the election.
The third player is 45-year-old Kejriwal who in a period of almost one year has become a somebody from a nobody and today is the CM of Delhi. He has successfully garnered the anti-Congress vote to his outfit AAP leaving BJP gaping with wonder. The euphoria against corruption and corrupt practices that he has successfully created has built a protective firewall which BJP could not puncture to mop up a few independents and form government in Delhi like it would have done earlier on. Kejriwal the crusader is now Kejriwal the ruler. He has offered AAP as an alternative and not substitute to both the national parties. The voters seem to be in a mood to accept this untried alternative. Unlike Modi and Rahul, he is well educated and has also gained job experience before plunging into public life culminating with gaining political power in Delhi. The speed with which he has moved to fulfill the water and power promises of his manifesto has almost turned him into a rock star. His simple living and high thinking is a very powerful weapon which the designer kurta-clad Modi and on and off bearded Rahul will find difficult to match. The immense and impressive crowds that gathered at Ramleela ground for his swearing in were not brought in chartered trains or buses but came on their own. Kejriwal is turning out to be an astute player who knows how to involve the masses in decision making. He has gathered around himself a dedicated team of workers who are so far working dedicatedly and selflessly. The denial of availing of official perquisites and security cover by AAP ministers has also created a very favourable impression. First impression is the last impression and AAP has done it very effectively.
In his attempt to leap forward Modi seems to have got his one leg left dangling in air. Rahul is ever in preparation to launch himself. It is Kejriwal who has prepared well and leapfrogged ahead leaving the other two baffled and bewildered. The committed voters of both BJP and Congress may not opt for but fence sitters and uncommitted voters now have in AAP a viable alternative. By all accounts Congress is going to find it difficult to come back to power in 2014. It was thus a foregone conclusion that BJP led front would come to power. However if AAP spreads its wings in Delhi, adjoining States like Haryana, UP, Rajasthan and in Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra,Tamil Nadu and Kerala and the middle class urban voters propel it then Modi is going to find it very difficult to fulfill his dream of becoming PM. AAP has already started attracting politicians from other parties and increasing number of persons are joining it.
What can the BJP do to attract more voters to itself. Pretty little, chiefly because it has exhausted its ammunition by starting too early. Modi in his anxiety to get nominated as the PM candidate, forgot that in politics a week is a very long time, but instead sold the idea to his party, that in politics even a year is a short time. The Congress has itself to blame for its woes. It has been very badly let down by its own leaders who considered public money as their own and had the divine right to take as much they liked. The party was totally indifferent to public sentiments and is suffering from a mighty disconnect with the young generation and its aspirations. Most of its leaders are spent politicians but allegedly active fund guzzlers.They need a break. Rahul is a misfit in the party as his desire to change it is not well supported by a tired organisation consisting of satisfied members.
In such scenario AAP comes in as a fresh breeze in which voters like to stroll and partake it. Kejriwal comes out as a unlike usual politician who along with his band of supporters is seen as corruption proof. If they play their cards properly and do not succumb to the need to join hands with tainted politicians of other parties for increasing their chances of gaining more seats, Indian voter is in a solid mood to catapult them to dizzy heights which they themselves may not have imagined.
The incoming year is surely going to witness fantastic and complex scenarios on the political front. We have not discussed the role regional parties, equally strong in their states, can play. What till yesterday looked a foregone conclusion looks doubtful today and a totally new scenario may emerge tomorrow.
Long live the Indian voter !!
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